Among
the various troubling human addictions the one having the
most worrisome consequences for humanity and planet Earth
is population growth.
Some
addictions, such as illicit drug use, tobacco smoking, alcohol
abuse, gun violence and junk food consumption, are contributing
to chronic diseases, illnesses, injuries and the premature
deaths of millions of men, women and children. The sustained
growth of human populations, however, is far more troubling
as it is undermining the wellbeing of humanity.
As
it contributes to the climate crisis, environmental degradation,
biodiversity loss, natural resource depletion and pollution,
world population growth poses a serious threat to the sustainability
of humans on the planet. Concerned with its serious and far
reaching consequences, climatologists, environmentalists,
scientists, celebrities and others have repeatedly called
for human population stabilization, with some urging gradually
reducing the size of world population.
Despite
those calls and warnings of life on the planet being under
siege, the proponents of continued demographic growth, including
many elected government officials, business leaders, investors
and economic advisors, have by and large disregarded the widely
available evidence on the consequences of population growth,
especially on climate change and the environment. In both
their policies and actions, they have dismissed the warnings
and recommendations urging for world population stabilization
and its gradual reduction.
Pro-growth
proponents erroneously claim that the numerous cited consequences
of population growth on the world’s climate, environment,
biodiversity, natural resources and human wellbeing are greatly
exaggerated and amount to simply fake news. Some have even
called climate change a hoax and ignore warnings that the
time for action is running out with the world entering uncharted
territory and humanity making minimal progress in combating
climate change.
Also,
some proponents of population growth argue that the consequences
of climate change, including higher average temperatures,
severe droughts and hurricanes, excessive heat waves, floods,
rising sea levels and high tides, melting Antarctic ice shelves,
degraded environments, record wildfires, endangered wildlife,
exploited natural resources and increased pollution, should
be calmly and resolutely brushed aside.
Less
than one hundred years ago, i.e., in 1927, world population
reached 2,000,000,000. Less than fifty years later, i.e.,
in 1974, the planet’s human population doubled to 4,000,000,000.
And nearly fifty years later in 2022, world population has
doubled again to 8,000,000,000
Despite
the calls for the stabilization of human populations, any
slowdown in the growth of population is typically viewed with
concern, alarm, panic and fear. Economic growth, advocates
claim, requires sustained population growth. In brief, they
see a growing population vital to the production of more goods
and services leading to higher economic growth.
Besides
being viewed as fundamental for economic growth, pro-growth
advocates consider population growth essential for profits,
taxes, labor force, politics, cultural leadership and power.
Any
slowdown in a country’s demographic growth, such as
has been experienced by some countries during the past decade
and expected for even more countries in the coming decades,
is met by political, business and economic leaders ringing
alarm bells and warning of economic calamities and national
decline.
Calls
for limited immigration in order to achieve population stabilization
are also strongly resisted, particularly by businesses and
special interest groups. Reducing immigration levels, they
often claim, is incompatible with the needs for labor, the
promotion of innovation and sustained economic growth.
Some
have even claimed that population decline due to low birth
rates is a far bigger risk to civilization than climate change.
In addition, as others have stressed, worker shortages coupled
with population ageing are having social and economic repercussions,
especially with regard to the financial solvency of national
retirement pension programs.
The
pro-growth advocates warn of a pending population crisis due
to low fertility rates, many of which are below the replacement
level. Their solution to the low fertility levels is to encourage
the public, in particular women, to have more babies.
Since
1976, the proportion of countries with government policies
to raise fertility levels has tripled from 9 to 28 percent.
Europe has the highest proportion of countries seeking to
raise fertility rates at 66 percent, followed by Asia at 38
percent.
Many
governments have introduced various pro-natalist policy measures
to raise fertility levels. Those measures include tax incentives,
family allowances, baby bonuses, cash incentives, government
loans, maternal and paternal leave, publicly subsidized child
care, flexible work schedules, parental leave and campaigns
aimed at changing public attitudes.
Of
the 55 countries with policies to raise fertility, nearly
three-quarters of them have low fertility and one-third have
a total fertility rate lower than 1.5 births per woman. The
populations of those 55 countries range in size from more
than 1.4 billion to less than 10 million. The diverse group
of countries seeking to raise their fertility levels includes
Armenia, Chile, China, Cuba, France, Hungary, Iran, Israel,
Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain,
Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine (Figure 2).
In
addition to policies aimed at raising fertility levels, nearly
40 percent of countries have relied on immigration to increase
their rates of population growth. Without immigration, the
population of some of those countries, such as Australia,
Canada and the United States, would also decline in size due
to below replacement fertility levels.
Many
of those calling for ever-increasing populations are simply
promoting Ponzi demography, a pyramid scheme that makes sustainability
impossible. In general, economists don’t talk about
the scheme and governments won’t face it. Also, the
underlying strategy of the Ponzi demography scheme is to privatize
the profits and socialize the economic, social and environmental
costs incurred from ever-increasing populations.
Many
provinces, cities and local communities also seek to have
growing populations and lament slowdowns and declines in demographic
growth. By and large, population stabilization is viewed as
‘population stagnation’, which they maintain not
only suppresses economic growth for businesses but also reduces
job opportunities for workers. At the same, however, the claim
is made that population slowdowns are contributing to worker
shortages.
In
contrast to the dire warnings of population stagnation or
collapse, others believe that lower fertility and smaller
populations should be celebrated rather than feared. In addition
to positive consequences for climate change and the environment,
lower birth rates are frequently linked to increased education
of women, greater gender equality, improved health levels
and higher living standards.
Despite
the calls for population stabilization, the world’s
addiction to population growth is likely to persist for some
time. World population is expected to continue growing throughout
the 21st century, likely reaching 10,000,000,000 by 2058.
Moreover,
more than half of the global population growth between today
and midcentury is expected to occur in Africa. The populations
of many sub-Saharan African countries are likely doubling
in size over the coming several decades.
In
sum, the repeated warnings by scientists, commissions and
concerned others about the serious consequences of human population
increase for climate change, the environment, pollution and
sustainability appear insufficient to modify the addiction
to demographic growth any time soon. As a result, possible
future policies and programs aimed at addressing those consequences
are likely to be too little and too late to mitigate the profound
effects of population growth on the planet and humanity.
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