The declining, ageing and diversifying of Europe’s population
that is rapidly evolving in the 21st century is based on the
continent’s past levels of fertility, mortality, and
migration, more recent trends, and the expected likely demographic
trends over the coming eight decades.
With
an estimated population in 1900 of approximately 408 million,
Europe’s population grew to 550 million by 1950. Over
the subsequent seven decades, Europe’s population continue
to increase at a relatively rapid pace, peaking at about 746
million in 2020.
Europe’s
share of the world’s total population, however, fell
slightly during the first half of the 20th century, from 25
percent in 1900 to 22 percent in 1950. Over the subsequent
decades, Europe’s share declined substantially, falling
to about 10 percent of world population by 2020.
The
United Nations population projection (medium variant) expects
Europe’s current estimated population of 742 million
to continue declining. By 2050 Europe’s population is
projected to fall to 703 million and by the close of the 21st
century to be 587 million, or approximately 7 and 6 percent
of the world’s population, respectively.
Those projections of population decline during the 21st century
assume that Europe’s fertility rate will continue to
remain well below the replacement level of about two births
per woman. And that low level has been the case for Europe’s
fertility rate over the past fifty years.
From
a high of about 2.7 births per woman in 1950, Europe’s
total fertility rate fell below the replacement level by the
mid-1970s. The rate continued to decline to its current level
of approximately 1.5 births per woman, with virtually all
European countries experiencing below-replacement fertility.
Over
the coming decades, the United Nations medium variant projection
assumes fertility will improve slightly. At the close of the
21st century, Europe’s fertility rate is expected to
reach 1.7 births per woman, still about a half-child below
the replacement level.
Of course, Europe’s future fertility rate could differ
from the expected medium variant fertility projection. And
consequently, a different future fertility trajectory would
yield a different future population size for Europe.
The
high variant, for example, assumes the fertility rate will
increase over the coming decades to near the replacement level
of approximately 2.2 births per woman. Accordingly, the high
variant fertility results in a projected European population
by 2100 of about 830 million, considerably higher than the
587 million projected by the medium variant.
In
contrast, the low variant assumes Europe’s current low
fertility rate will decrease even further over the coming
decades to about 1.2 births per woman. Under that assumption,
Europe’s population in 2100 is projected to decline
to approximately 400 million. And if the fertility rate were
to remain unchanged at its current level of 1.5 births per
woman, the size of Europe’s population at the close
of the 21st century would be about the same as it was at the
middle of the 20th century, i.e., about 540 million.
With
respect to Europe’s future levels of mortality, it is
assumed that life expectancies will continue to increase throughout
the 21st century. Europe’s current average life expectancy
at birth of nearly 80 years is projected to reach nearly 84
years by 2050 and approximately 90 years by the close of the
21st century.
In
addition to declining in size, the population of Europe is
also ageing due to its low fertility levels as well as increasing
longevity. The median age of 28 years in 1950 increased to
37 years by 2000 and 42 years by 2020.The
ageing of Europe’s population is expected to continue
throughout the remainder of the 21st century. The median age
for the continent’s population is projected to reach
47 years by 2050 and 50 years by 2100.
The elderly proportion of the European population will also
continue to increase substantially over the coming decades.
Whereas the proportion of the population aged 65 years and
older was 8 percent in 1950, by the start of the 21st century
it had nearly doubled to 15 percent and has now reached about
20 percent.
The
elderly proportion of Europe’s population is projected
to continue rising to about 29 percent by mid-century. And
by 2100, one-third of Europe’s population will be aged
65 years and older with the proportion approaching 40 percent
for some countries, such as Albania, Croatia, Greece, Italy
and Spain.
In
addition, Europe’s number of centenarians are also rising.
Whereas at the start of the 21st century Europe’s centenarian
population numbered about 50 thousand, today they are nearly
200 thousand. The number of Europe’s centenarians is
expected to continue increasing, reaching 500 by mid-century
and well over 2 million before the close of the century.
Europe’s
population has also become more diverse ethnically as a result
of increasing levels of international migration. The estimated
number of foreign-born in Europe, which was about 57 million
at the start of the 21st century, has increased to approximately
87 million by 2020.
Nearly
40 percent of the foreign-born in 2020 reside in western European
countries, with about 18 percent of the foreign-born in Germany,
which is nearly double the proportion in 2000. Other countries
with large proportions of Europe’s 2020 foreign-born
population include Russia at 13 percent, the United Kingdom
at 11 percent, France at 10 percent, Spain at 8 percent, and
Italy at 7 percent.As
has been the case during the recent past, the size and proportion
of Europe’s foreign-born population are expected to
continue rising over the coming decades. With its ageing and
declining population, the levels of migration to Europe are
likely to be substantially greater than the levels being experienced
today, especially with the persistent demands from the private
sector calling for more workers at virtually all skill levels.
In
addition to relatively high levels of legal migration, the
increasing levels of unauthorized migration pose a myriad
of mounting challenges for Europe. Notable among those challenges
are negative attitudes and hostilities towards immigrants
and their families, legal, ethical, and human rights questions
regarding unauthorized migrants, and the rising political
influence of far-right nationalist parties.
A
potent factor fueling the unprecedented high levels of unauthorized
migration to Europe is the rapid demographic growth of many
developing countries struggling with poverty, political instability,
civil strife, and climate change in Africa and Asia. Particularly
notable is Africa’s population, which currently contains
33 of the 46 least developed countries in the world. The African
population is expected to more than triple during the 21st
century, increasing from about 800 million to nearly 4 billion.
Although
the overall population of Europe is declining, ageing and
diversifying, noteworthy differences exist among the countries
on that continent. In general, European nations are ageing,
diversifying, and experiencing below-replacement fertility
rates, with many expected to experience population decline
during the 21st century. However, the populations of some
European countries are projected to increase).
The
expected percentage declines in the size of their populations
between 2022 and mid-century include Germany (-5 percent),
Spain (-7 percent), Russia (-8 percent), Italy (-11 percent),
Hungary (-12 percent), Poland (-12 percent), and Ukraine (-17
percent). In contrast, the projected percentage increases
in the size of their populations over the next thirty years
due to relatively high immigration levels include France (2
percent), the Netherlands (2 percent), Belgium (4 percent),
the United Kingdom (6 percent), Switzerland (12 percent),
Sweden (13 percent), and Norway (17 percent).
In
sum, the major demographic features of Europe’s population
for the 21st century are declining, ageing and diversifying.
Those potent and pervasive demographics are creating formidable
challenges for Europe. Rather than hoping for an unrealistic
return to the levels of the past, it’s time for the
countries of Europe to recognize their changing demographics
and address the many challenges arising from them.
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