The world’s elderly are not only growing in number and
percent of the world’s population, but they are also
experiencing increasing longevity, a welcomed blessing for
humanity.
The
20th century ushered in the profound rise of the elderly.
During the 21st century, the elderly as a result of their
rising numbers and growing proportions of country populations
will be increasingly impacting government policies, programs
and expenditures.
Prior
to the 20th century, the proportion of the world’s population
aged 65 years and older was likely around 2 to 3%. By 1900,
that proportion is estimated to have increased to approximately
4% with the elderly numbering about 66 million. By the middle
of the 20th century, the world’s elderly proportion
aged 65 years and older is estimated to have reached 5% and
their number nearly doubled to 126 million.
At
the start of the 21st century, the percent of the world’s
population who were elderly increased to 7 percent and they
numbered about 422 million. Today the estimated percent elderly
is 10 percent, double the 1950 level. The number of people
aged 65 years and older in 2025 is estimated to be about 857
million, which is approximately seven times the number of
elderly in 1950.
The
world’s elderly are not only growing in number and percent
of the world’s population, but they are also experiencing
increasing longevity, a welcomed blessing for humanity.
In
1950, the life expectancies of the world’s population
at ages 65 and 80 years were about 11 and 5 years, respectively.
Over the subsequent decades, the life expectancies for the
elderly increased, reaching nearly 16 and 7 years at the beginning
of the 21st century. The life expectancies at ages 65 and
80 years today are estimated to be close to 18 and 8 years,
respectively.
Furthermore,
the proportion of the world’s population aged 80 years
and older, which was 0.6% in 1950, more than doubled to 1.6%
by the close of the 20th century. Today the proportion of
the world’s population aged 80 years and older has increased
to nearly 2.1% and is expected to more than double to 4.6%
by 2050 and double again to 9.3% by the year 2100.
The
life expectancies of the elderly are also expected to continue
rising in the years ahead. By the close of the 21st century,
for example, the life expectancies at ages 65 and 80 years
are expected to reach 22 and 11 years, respectively, or double
the 1950 levels.
It
is also noteworthy that as women generally live longer than
men, a clear majority of the elderly are women. Today approximately
55% of the world’s 857 million persons aged 65 years
and older are women. At older ages the sex imbalance is even
larger. Among the world’s 170 million people aged 80
years and older, for example, about 62% are women.
Considerable
diversity exists across countries in the life expectancies
of the elderly. The estimated levels for 2025 among some developed
countries, such as Japan, France and Australia, are approximately
double the life expectancies of the elderly among some developing
countries, such as Nigeria, Chad and Togo.
For
example, while Japan’s estimated life expectancies for
the elderly in 2025 at ages 65 and 80 years are 23 and 11
years, respectively, the corresponding life expectancies for
Nigeria’s elderly are 12 and 5 years.
Moreover,
the differences among countries with respect to elderly life
expectancies are expected to persist throughout the 21st century.
By 2100, the projected life expectancies for Japan at ages
65 and 80 years are 30 and 16 years, respectively, versus
14 and 6 years for Nigeria at those ages.
The
rising numbers and proportions of the elderly combined with
their increasing longevity have important economic, social
and political consequences for countries and their citizens.
Perhaps
the most evident consequence today concerns government financed
retirement programs for the elderly. As the numbers and the
proportions of the elderly increase, the retirement benefits
for the elderly create financial strains on the viability
of national programs.
To address the increasing costs of national retirement programs,
some governments are raising the official retirement ages
in order to receive full benefits. Other governments are considering
raising taxes and also reducing retirement benefits.
Another
important consequence of the rising numbers and proportions
of the elderly is their increasing needs for healthcare. Those
needs lead to greater spending on medical care, long-term
assistance and pharmaceuticals. And among the common health
concerns of the elderly are heart ailments, arthritis, Alzheimer’s,
osteoporosis, diabetes, obesity, urinary incontinence, social
isolation, depression, hearing loss and falls.
In
addition to medical care, many of the elderly, especially
at the older ages, are in need of assistance, care giving
and help with activities of daily living.
In
most developing countries the elderly usually reside with
extended family members. In developed countries, in contrast,
the elderly typically live with a spouse, followed by many
living by themselves.
Without
adequate government funding and services, people, in particular
women, face increased pressures to provide care and assistance
to their elderly relatives. In many instances, those pressures
lead to strains, stresses and personal burnout for the caregivers.
The
rising numbers and proportions of the elderly can also lead
to political controversies among the different generations,
especially regarding government expenditures, taxes, pensions
and healthcare.
One
increasingly important area of difference between the generations
concerns the amount of government funds and resources that
should be provided to the elderly versus to the young. In
particular, the elderly and young adults are likely to have
differing views regarding the appropriate balance of government
resources and support allocated to eldercare versus childcare.
The
elderly are more likely to back financial increases for pensions
and limit spending on education. Also, the elderly are more
likely to be politically conservative and emphasize tradition,
customs and ritual. In contrast, young adults are more likely
to be politically liberal, stress individual freedoms, and
embrace innovation and changing social norms.
In
sum, the profound rise of the world’s elderly that was
ushered in during the 20th century is continuing throughout
the 21st century.
As
a result of their growth in absolute numbers and relative
proportions of the world’s population coupled with their
increasing longevity, the rise of the elderly is having significant
consequences for countries and their citizens. Recognizing,
understanding and preparing for the profound rise of the elderly
will not only facilitate this historic transition but it will
also contribute substantially to addressing its many important
consequences.
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